A normal level of growth for accountancy firms
I wondered last week whether the accountancy bubble was about to burst and a couple of posters suggested I was being too cautious. It's not the first time I've been accused of that but on this one I'll hedge my best for a little while longer.
Yes, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that a slowdown is underway (comments from PwC chairman Kieran Poynter, less-good-than-previously financials from a big recruiter etc.) but I struggle to see evidence that a crash is on the cards.
Deloitte's chief executive John Connolly says: ' "Calling" the market in the year ahead is challenging. The first quarter of the financial year saw continued strong growth in line with the previous year but the outlook remains uncertain.' He sees M&A as a great opportunity. Ernst & Young is thought to be more aggressive and while new KPMG head honcho John Griffith Jones is a little more cautious, his firm has posted the biggest gains in the last 12 months and so is bound to see slower acceleration going forward.
Below that top tier it's hard to imagine a more confident business person these days than Jeremy Newman of Stoy Hayward. And Grant Thornton continues to be perky too.
Of course they would say that. No chief exec wants to sound less bullish than a competitor and, with no listing authority to call them to account, there is little need for the big players to curb their enthusiasm. Neither do they want to talk the market into recession, always a very real danger.
But if Poynter is, forgive me, pointing to slower growth - albeit of the high single digit variety - that's not the end of the world. A few years ago Clive Thompson was known as Mr 20% for consistently delivering on the services group's annual revenue target. It didn't last and neither did his tenure as chairman.
Surely there is a normal level of growth we can expect from accountancy firms which doesn't require us to call a recession?



I and others are not predicting a crash or recession in the conventional sense.
Posted by Dennis Howlett | September 19, 2006 7:58 AM
I think this is right for big firms. Small firms will have a much better time by concentrating on the largly untapped SOHO market and providing additional services.
I wrote about this in more detail on my blog, http://www.sme-blog.com/?p=170.
Posted by Stefan Töpfer | September 19, 2006 1:12 PM
I agree with both Dennis and Stefan. I think Dennis alludes to the accounting profession's seeming knack for self-regulating itself out of financial difficulty; it can always engineer a soft landing of sorts while it figures out how to adapt to innovation-induced-competition. My belief is that Sarbanes-Oxley was just this kind of quasi-self-regulation.
Stefan is undoubtedly correct to the extent small accountancy firms move away from reliance on commodity-like services including tax compliance, payroll/payroll tax processing, etc. If they don't they'll either squander whatever unique human capital they happen to have, or fail to acquire any.
By the way, the evidence seems quite clear that Things-Are-Amiss-in-the-Accounting-Industry. My co-authors and are examining key economic trends in the accounting industry and--in short--the data suggest little reason for optimism. I've posted a fair amount of the evidence on my blog at http://mmclelland.squarespace.com/journal/.
Posted by Malcolm McLelland | September 28, 2006 12:16 AM